ASEAN’s Renewable Energy Tipping Point: Why the Next Decade Matters
By Pornprapun Sriyotha · Published February 4, 2026 · 5 min read
Southeast Asia is entering a decisive decade for its power sector. In 2024, electricity demand in the region jumped about 7%, nearly twice the global average, and it is expected to grow by more than 50% by 2035 as factories expand, cities grow, air‑conditioning use soars, and data centers multiply. Today, renewables make up roughly 35% of ASEAN’s installed power capacity, but that share needs to roughly triple by 2030 if the region is to stay aligned with its climate commitments.
Against this backdrop, the International Energy Agency’s Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 lays out two starkly different futures for the region’s power mix: one based on today’s policies, and another based on governments actually delivering on their net‑zero pledges. Two Futures: STEPS vs APS The IEA frames the region’s choices through two scenarios. The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) captures the “direction of travel” if Southeast Asian countries implement only the policies that are already in place or formally proposed. The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes governments fully deliver on their stated climate and net‑zero targets on time. These scenarios differ most in what happens to coal and how fast clean energy scales. Electricity generation by source in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2023-2050 Last updated 18 Oct 2024 Source: IEA (2024), Electricity generation by source in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2023-2050, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electricity-generation-by-source-in-southeast-asia-in-the-stated-policies-scenario-2023-2050 , Licence: CC BY 4.0 In STEPS, coal remains a cornerstone of Southeast Asia’s power system all the way to 2050. Its share of generation falls to about 35% by 2035, but actual coal‑fired output keeps rising by around 2% each year under current trajectories. Renewables expand, yet they supply only a bit more than one‑third of regional electricity by 2035. Electricity…